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Updated 2 wk. ago

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

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19 %

chance

▲ +0.5%1h▼ −1.0%24h▼ −19.0%1W
Yes 19¢No 82¢

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

6 outcomes
See all 6 outcomes

Total volume

$472.6K

24h vol.

$481.38

1w vol.

$10.4K

1m vol.

$62.2K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

18¢ / 19¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

16¢

Start date

Nov 12, 2025

End date

Mar 2, 2027

ends in 4 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 3,440 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 30.3% resolved YES. That is 4.7 points more often than their average price of 25.6% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 3¢
Bids (buy)Size
34¢$511
33¢$1,232
32¢$507
31¢$689
30¢$886
29¢$100
28¢$100
27¢$1,011
26¢$186
25¢$120
Asks (sell)Size
37¢$5
38¢$3,536
39¢$3,328
40¢$1,190
41¢$1,141
42¢$2,705
43¢$2,378
44¢$1,140
45¢$1,115
46¢$400

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

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uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 86%Sells 14%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 wk. agoBuy37¢5
2 wk. agoBuy63¢5
2 wk. agoBuy38¢3
2 wk. agoBuy62¢3
2 wk. agoSell35¢79
2 wk. agoBuy35¢79
2 wk. agoBuy37¢228
2 wk. agoBuy63¢74
2 wk. agoSell37¢100
2 wk. agoBuy63¢10
2 wk. agoBuy63¢30
2 wk. agoBuy63¢13
2 wk. agoSell35¢1
2 wk. agoBuy35¢1
2 wk. agoBuy37¢9
2 wk. agoBuy63¢9
2 wk. agoBuy37¢50
2 wk. agoBuy63¢30
2 wk. agoBuy63¢20
2 wk. agoBuy38¢200
2 wk. agoBuy62¢120
2 wk. agoBuy62¢60
2 wk. agoBuy63¢20
2 wk. agoBuy38¢200
2 wk. agoBuy62¢200
2 wk. agoBuy37¢91
2 wk. agoBuy63¢61
2 wk. agoBuy63¢30
2 wk. agoBuy35¢165
2 wk. agoBuy65¢20
2 wk. agoBuy65¢5
2 wk. agoBuy65¢35
2 wk. agoSell35¢20
2 wk. agoBuy65¢5
2 wk. agoBuy65¢30
2 wk. agoBuy65¢20
2 wk. agoBuy65¢10
2 wk. agoBuy65¢20
2 wk. agoSell63¢1
2 wk. agoBuy63¢1
2 wk. agoSell32¢68
2 wk. agoBuy32¢13
2 wk. agoBuy32¢25
2 wk. agoSell67¢30
2 wk. agoBuy36¢318
2 wk. agoBuy64¢308
2 wk. agoBuy65¢10
2 wk. agoBuy36¢26
2 wk. agoBuy64¢26
2 wk. agoSell34¢138

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