Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? odds
Live implied probabilities across 6 outcomes · $3.8M traded · updated 4 days ago
Resolves Mar 2, 2027
1 leads at 72 %
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
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See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record??
- 1 is the current favourite at 72 %, ahead of 5 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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