Next James Bond actor? odds
Live implied probabilities across 24 outcomes · $1.5M traded · updated 5 hr. ago
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
No Bond chosen leads at 39 % · biggest 24h move: Jack Lowden −6.2 pp
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
- 1No Bond chosen39 %▲ +4.7%$580.8K
- 2Jack Lowden27 %▼ −6.2%$266.3K
- 3Callum Turner18 %▼ −0.7%$109.5K
- 4Jack Barton5 %▲ +1.5%$66.1K
- 5Jacob Elordi4 %▲ +1.2%$27.9K
- 6Josh O'Connor3 %▼ −0.6%$23.4K
- 7Jack O'Connell2 %—$39.2K
- 8Paul Mescal2 %▲ +0.8%$22K
- 9Tom Francis1 %—$26.5K
- 10Harris Dickinson1 %▲ +0.1%$31.1K
- 11Tom Hardy1 %▲ +0.3%$22.9K
- 12Henry Cavill0 %—$21.3K
Show all 24 outcomesShow fewer
- 13Aaron Taylor-Johnson0 %—$33.8K
- 14Timothee Chalamet0 %▲ +0.2%$18.3K
- 15Richard Madden0 %—$23.1K
- 16James Norton0 %▲ +0.1%$25K
- 17Theo James0 %—$40.4K
- 18Pierce Brosnan0 %—$15.9K
- 19Tom Holland0 %—$18.3K
- 20Nicholas Galitzine0 %▼ −0.2%$13.4K
- 21Jonathan Bailey0 %▼ −0.1%$13.8K
- 22Robert James-Collier0 %▼ −0.3%$8.7K
- 23Michael B Jordan0 %▼ −0.3%$12.5K
- 24Tom Blyth0 %—$14.1K
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See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Next James Bond actor??
- No Bond chosen is the current favourite at 39 %, ahead of 23 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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