Ballon d'Or Top 2 Finish 2026 odds
30 independent outcomes · $42.5K traded · updated 9 hr. ago
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
These outcomes are independent — they do not compete, and more than one can happen. That is why the percentages here add up to more than 100%.
ThresholdChance24hVolume7d
- Harry Kane94 %▲ +2.5%$3.3K
- Kylian Mbappé55 %▼ −0.5%$480.869
- Michael Olise47 %▼ −0.5%$924.384
- Lamine Yamal43 %▼ −5.5%$11.2K
- Dayot Upamecano30 %▼ −17.0%$108.4
- Ferran Torres8 %▲ +4.8%$83.4
- Lionel Messi5 %▲ +0.8%$2.3K
- Julián Quiñones4 %▲ +1.6%$229.51
- Fabian Ruiz4 %▼ −0.5%$245.35
- Marquinhos3 %▼ −19.0%$258.7
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia3 %▼ −0.7%$600
- Ousmane Dembélé2 %▲ +1.5%$1.9K
Show all 30 outcomesShow fewer
- Rodri2 %▼ −40.5%$985.75
- João Neves2 %▲ +0.7%$257.71
- Pau Cubarsi1 %▼ −1.8%$377.78
- Vinícius Júnior1 %▼ −7.8%$408.4
- Marc Cucurella1 %▼ −0.5%$269.4
- William Saliba1 %▼ −24.3%$236.6
- Luis Diaz1 %▼ −0.6%$172
- Achraf Hakimi1 %▼ −1.0%$320
- Sadio Mané1 %▼ −32.9%$409.4
- Declan Rice1 %▼ −0.3%$373.16
- Gabriel Magalhães1 %▼ −12.9%$3.3K
- Vitinha1 %▼ −9.3%$850.985
- Erling Haaland1 %▼ −2.2%$234.74
- Nuno Mendes1 %▼ −32.9%$692.886
- Bruno Fernandes0 %▲ +0.1%$3.9K
- Jude Bellingham0 %▼ −0.3%$1.8K
- Lautaro Martinez0 %▼ −0.1%$2.8K
- Willian Pacho0 %▼ −0.1%$3.5K
Frequently asked questions
- Why do these add up to more than 100%?
- Because these outcomes are independent rather than competing. Several of them can happen at once, so their probabilities do not have to sum to 100%.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
Related events
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