Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 odds
Live implied probabilities across 19 outcomes · $47.2M traded · updated 2 hr. ago
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Harry Kane leads at 67 % · biggest 24h move: Lamine Yamal −2.2 pp
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
- 1Harry Kane67 %▲ +1.8%$6M
- 2Lamine Yamal26 %▼ −2.2%$4.5M
- 3Lionel Messi3 %▲ +0.4%$5.1M
- 4Kylian Mbappé3 %▼ −0.1%$4.2M
- 5Khvicha Kvaratskhelia0 %▼ −0.1%$3.2M
- 6Rodri0 %▼ −0.1%$3.2M
- 7Ousmane Dembélé0 %—$3.8M
- 8Erling Haaland0 %—$3.1M
- 9Michael Olise0 %▼ −0.1%$2.9M
- 10Fabian Ruiz0 %—$2.9M
- 11Jude Bellingham0 %—$1.6M
- 12Vinícius Júnior0 %—$1.1M
Market Guy's AI has analysed 2 of 19 outcomes — 0 disagree with the market.
See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026?
- Harry Kane is the current favourite at 67 %, ahead of 18 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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