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Updated 1 day ago

Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?
3 %
chance
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
14 outcomesTotal volume
$7K
24h vol.
$2.5K
1w vol.
$5.3K
1m vol.
$7K
Liquidity
$5.7K
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 4¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
5¢
Start date
Oct 2, 2026
End date
Oct 20, 2026
ends in 13 hr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 153 resolved Polymarket Tech markets priced 0–5% one day before resolution, 0.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day ago | Buy | 98¢ | 20 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 2¢ | 19 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 2¢ | 1 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 98¢ | 11 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 2¢ | 11 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 98¢ | 8 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 2¢ | 8 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 7¢ | 1,418 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 84¢ | 391 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 92¢ | 63 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 92¢ | 80 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 6¢ | 5 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 6¢ | 5 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 6¢ | 201 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 6¢ | 5 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 6¢ | 5 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 6¢ | 5 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 6¢ | 5 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 6¢ | 5 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 3¢ | 50 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 98¢ | 522 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 2¢ | 27 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 98¢ | 20 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 98¢ | 28 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 2¢ | 73 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 30 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 42 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 230 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 230 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 2¢ | 74 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 23 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 45 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 6 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 0 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 0 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 0 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 0 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 99¢ | 0 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 0 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 99¢ | 8 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 2 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 6 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 98¢ | 0 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 0 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 0 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 0 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 5¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 10 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 10 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 235 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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Smart money is a Pro+ feature
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
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