Who will Trump pardon before 2027? odds
24 independent outcomes · $508.8K traded · updated 8 hr. ago
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
These outcomes are independent — they do not compete, and more than one can happen. That is why the percentages here add up to more than 100%.
ThresholdChance24hVolume7d
- Daniel Penny21 %▲ +20.0%$1.1K
- Stefan Brodie16 %▼ −1.0%$3.5K
- Donald Brodie15 %▼ −4.5%$17.8K
- Roger Ver15 %▲ +9.9%$3.2K
- Ryan Salame11 %▼ −2.0%$34.2K
- Keonne Rodriguez11 %▲ +0.5%$19.7K
- Matt Gaetz10 %▼ −1.5%$7.9K
- Steve Bannon8 %▼ −0.9%$12.3K
- Julian Assange6 %—$4.5K
- Joe Exotic6 %▼ −2.0%$5.6K
- Roger Stone5 %▼ −2.6%$11.5K
- Nicolas Maduro5 %▲ +2.5%$10.4K
Show all 24 outcomesShow fewer
- Himself5 %▲ +2.5%$20.6K
- Diddy5 %▼ −0.9%$34.1K
- Elizabeth Holmes5 %▲ +0.3%$5.5K
- Ghislaine Maxwell5 %▲ +0.8%$28.9K
- Do Kwon5 %▼ −3.0%$21.6K
- Eric Adams4 %▼ −4.2%$1.8K
- Young Thug4 %▼ −0.7%$5.2K
- Derek Chauvin4 %▼ −0.4%$28.2K
- Andrew Tate4 %▼ −0.3%$1.6K
- Sam Bankman-Fried4 %▲ +0.2%$144.7K
- Martin Shkreli3 %▼ −1.2%$31.6K
- Elon Musk3 %▲ +0.3%$53.1K
Frequently asked questions
- Why do these add up to more than 100%?
- Because these outcomes are independent rather than competing. Several of them can happen at once, so their probabilities do not have to sum to 100%.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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