TIME Person of the Year 2026 odds
28 independent outcomes · $136.7K traded · updated 4 hr. ago
Resolves Jul 1, 2027
These outcomes are independent — they do not compete, and more than one can happen. That is why the percentages here add up to more than 100%.
ThresholdChance24hVolume7d
- Zohran Mamdani28 %—$36.2K
- Mark Carney17 %—$9.1K
- Pope Leo XIV12 %▼ −3.5%$25.2K
- Benjamin Netanyahu8 %▲ +1.5%$7.5K
- Dario Amodei7 %▲ +0.1%$3.4K
- Donald Trump7 %▼ −1.0%$13.6K
- Artificial Intelligence7 %▲ +0.2%$7.3K
- Elon Musk6 %▼ −1.0%$4K
- Marco Rubio5 %▲ +0.4%$4.7K
- Reid Wiseman5 %▼ −1.0%$128.663
- Sam Altman5 %▲ +0.2%$341.11
- Jeremy Hansen5 %▲ +0.4%$288.245
Show all 28 outcomesShow fewer
- Victor Glover5 %▼ −0.7%$161.963
- Mojtaba Khamenei4 %▼ −0.1%$318.99
- Christina Koch4 %▲ +0.4%$529.733
- Bad Bunny4 %—$247.881
- Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf4 %▼ −0.1%$9.1K
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez4 %▼ −0.5%$367.465
- Péter Magyar4 %—$274.457
- James Talarico3 %▼ −0.9%$3.8K
- Shehbaz Sharif3 %▼ −0.2%$176.455
- Ali Khamenei3 %—$91.424
- Jerome Powell3 %▼ −1.7%$289.41
- ChatGPT3 %▼ −2.2%$146.14
- Ali G2 %▲ +0.2%$3.7K
- Alysa Liu1 %▼ −0.7%$2.1K
- Bernie Sanders1 %▲ +0.4%$3.3K
- Taylor Swift1 %▼ −2.3%$219.449
Frequently asked questions
- Why do these add up to more than 100%?
- Because these outcomes are independent rather than competing. Several of them can happen at once, so their probabilities do not have to sum to 100%.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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