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Monthly recap

Prediction market recap — August 2026

The month at a glance, built from the daily recaps: the biggest single-day swings, the markets that kept moving, and where the AI disagreed most.

Biggest moves of the month

The largest 24-hour swing per market, across every day of the month.

1Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?on Aug 1, 2026▲ +99.5%2Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?on Aug 21, 2026▲ +99.4%3Will Ethereum reach $2,300 August 17-23?Will Ethereum reach $2,300 August 17-23?on Aug 20, 2026▲ +99.3%4Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026?Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026?on Aug 6, 2026▲ +98.9%5Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 20?Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 20?on Aug 20, 2026▲ +98.5%6Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?on Aug 13, 2026▲ +98.4%7Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 17-23?Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 17-23?on Aug 20, 2026▲ +98.3%8Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?on Aug 20, 2026▲ +97.7%9Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?on Aug 1, 2026▲ +97.3%10Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in August?Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in August?on Aug 24, 2026▲ +96.9%

Markets that kept moving

Markets that made the daily top movers on more than one day.

Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?29 daysWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?29 daysWill Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?22 daysWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?13 daysWill MOUZ Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?Will MOUZ Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?8 daysHamburg: Max Hans Rehberg vs Saba PurtseladzeHamburg: Max Hans Rehberg vs Saba Purtseladze6 days

Widest AI-vs-market gaps

The largest gap per market between price and the AI's research-based estimate.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Market 5% · AI 94% · on Aug 29, 2026-89 pp gapWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Market 100% · AI 13% · on Aug 20, 2026+87 pp gapMubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra EalaMubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra EalaMarket 0% · AI 87% · on Aug 4, 2026-87 pp gapMinnesota Twins vs. AthleticsMinnesota Twins vs. AthleticsMarket 9% · AI 92% · on Aug 26, 2026-83 pp gapWill Liquid Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?Will Liquid Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?Market 9% · AI 92% · on Aug 1, 2026-83 pp gapWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Market 100% · AI 18% · on Aug 13, 2026+82 pp gap

Every day of the month