Monthly recap
Prediction market recap — October 2026
The month at a glance, built from the daily recaps: the biggest single-day swings, the markets that kept moving, and where the AI disagreed most.
Biggest moves of the month
The largest 24-hour swing per market, across every day of the month.
1When will Aaron Rodgers retire? — Before the 2027-28 seasonon Oct 15, 2026▲ +98.0%2
Will Bitcoin dominance be greater than 61.00% on October 2?on Oct 2, 2026▼ −97.8%3
W35 Heraklion: Juliette Mazzoni vs Miriam Bianca Bulgaruon Oct 16, 2026▲ +97.2%4Exact Score: Ferro Carril Oeste 0 - 2 Deportivo Madryn?on Oct 3, 2026▲ +96.8%5
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?on Oct 12, 2026▲ +95.2%6
Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?on Oct 2, 2026▼ −94.9%7
Will Justina Pula be the next President of Kosovo?on Oct 7, 2026▲ +94.5%8
Will Drew Campbell come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?on Oct 2, 2026▲ +92.9%9M15 Monastir: Nazim Makhlouf vs Tuncay Duranon Oct 9, 2026▲ +92.6%10Vegas vs Nashville: Spread — Vegas wins by over 1.5 goalson Oct 14, 2026▲ +92.0%
Will Bitcoin dominance be greater than 61.00% on October 2?on Oct 2, 2026▼ −97.8%3W35 Heraklion: Juliette Mazzoni vs Miriam Bianca Bulgaruon Oct 16, 2026▲ +97.2%4Exact Score: Ferro Carril Oeste 0 - 2 Deportivo Madryn?on Oct 3, 2026▲ +96.8%5Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?on Oct 12, 2026▲ +95.2%6Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?on Oct 2, 2026▼ −94.9%7Will Justina Pula be the next President of Kosovo?on Oct 7, 2026▲ +94.5%8Will Drew Campbell come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?on Oct 2, 2026▲ +92.9%9M15 Monastir: Nazim Makhlouf vs Tuncay Duranon Oct 9, 2026▲ +92.6%10Vegas vs Nashville: Spread — Vegas wins by over 1.5 goalson Oct 14, 2026▲ +92.0%Markets that kept moving
Markets that made the daily top movers on more than one day.
Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?17 daysWill Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?14 daysWill Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?10 daysM15 Monastir: Nazim Makhlouf vs Tuncay Duran6 daysWill zekken play for MIBR in 2027?6 daysMatthew Stafford: Retirement — Before the 2027-28 season4 days
M15 Monastir: Nazim Makhlouf vs Tuncay Duran6 daysWill zekken play for MIBR in 2027?6 daysMatthew Stafford: Retirement — Before the 2027-28 season4 daysWidest AI-vs-market gaps
The largest gap per market between price and the AI's research-based estimate.
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseMarket 8% · AI 68% · on Oct 5, 2026-60 pp gapSEA Seahawks vs DEN Broncos — DenverMarket 50% · AI 100% · on Oct 17, 2026-50 pp gapSEA Seahawks vs DEN Broncos — SeattleMarket 51% · AI 0% · on Oct 17, 2026+51 pp gap
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Market 59% · AI 12% · on Oct 1, 2026+47 pp gapWill Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Market 14% · AI 59% · on Oct 5, 2026-44 pp gapUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Market 75% · AI 38% · on Oct 7, 2026+37 pp gap