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Monthly recap

Prediction market recap — September 2026

The month at a glance, built from the daily recaps: the biggest single-day swings, the markets that kept moving, and where the AI disagreed most.

Biggest moves of the month

The largest 24-hour swing per market, across every day of the month.

1When will Kyle Whittingham leave Michigan? — Before Dec 1, 2026on Sep 20, 2026▼ −98.0%2When will Dabo Swinney leave Clemson? — Before Dec 1, 2026on Sep 9, 2026▲ +97.0%3Will Chicago Bears score the most points in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season?on Sep 14, 2026▲ +93.9%4Will Aljamain Sterling fight Kevin Vallejos next?Will Aljamain Sterling fight Kevin Vallejos next?on Sep 30, 2026▲ +93.9%5Next Kimi K model released by September 15, 2026?Next Kimi K model released by September 15, 2026?on Sep 12, 2026▲ +92.5%6No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by September 30?No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by September 30?on Sep 30, 2026▲ +91.9%7U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?on Sep 25, 2026▲ +91.6%8Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of August 31?Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of August 31?on Sep 7, 2026▲ +91.2%9M25 Yinchuan: Matthew Shearer vs Shanghui LiM25 Yinchuan: Matthew Shearer vs Shanghui Lion Sep 23, 2026▼ −91.0%10Will "Onslaught" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?on Sep 5, 2026▼ −90.5%

Markets that kept moving

Markets that made the daily top movers on more than one day.

Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?15 daysWill Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?14 daysWill Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?13 daysWill Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?5 daysWhen will Dabo Swinney leave Clemson? — Before Dec 1, 20264 daysWill "Onslaught" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?4 days

Widest AI-vs-market gaps

The largest gap per market between price and the AI's research-based estimate.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Market 98% · AI 12% · on Sep 30, 2026+86 pp gapSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Market 4% · AI 84% · on Sep 30, 2026-80 pp gapUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Market 100% · AI 21% · on Sep 23, 2026+79 pp gapWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?Market 16% · AI 93% · on Sep 3, 2026-77 pp gapLAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?Market 17% · AI 91% · on Sep 10, 2026-75 pp gapIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?Market 2% · AI 73% · on Sep 14, 2026-71 pp gap

Every day of the month