Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Oct 16, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

W35 Heraklion: Juliette Mazzoni vs Miriam Bianca Bulgaru99¢▲ +97.2%2Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award?95¢▲ +86.1%3Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%4Will Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?89¢▲ +81.5%5Will Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?92¢▲ +80.0%6Will something (PRX) have the most kills for Paper Rex at VALORANT Champions 2026?98¢▲ +77.5%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Market 62%AI 39%+23 pp gap

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Market 21%AI 16%+5 pp gap

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Market 64%AI 58%+5 pp gap

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseMarket 9%AI 5%+4 pp gap

Biggest coin moves

The largest 24-hour price swings among the coins in our crypto hub.

Injective INJ$9.09▲ +24.8%Celestia TIA$0.6047▲ +14.9%Starknet STRK$0.084▲ +12.9%NEAR Protocol NEAR$5.21▲ +12.6%Filecoin FIL$1.15▲ +10.7%Arbitrum ARB$0.1922▲ +10.3%

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?20¢

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?28¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?36¢Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?16¢

New to prediction markets? Start with the beginner guides. Looking for a full field rather than a single market? Browse live odds by topic.