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Prediction markets vs sportsbooks

Sports · Venue comparison

NHL odds: Polymarket & Kalshi vs sportsbooks

Every NHL game in the next three days that has a Polymarket or Kalshi market and a winner price from licensed US sportsbooks.

NHL odds & schedule

Sportsbook odds read 56 min. ago.

As of : in 11 of 11 games, no Polymarket or Kalshi winner price is 3 points or more away from the no-vig consensus of licensed US sportsbooks. The median largest gap per game is 0.7 points.

Exchange prices are before the venue's fee. The consensus is the median of at least two sportsbooks' winner prices with their margin removed; a gap is the difference in percentage points.

How prediction markets and sportsbooks differ

Consensus and gaps are part of Pro+

The sportsbook consensus without the margin, the largest gap per game and where each side is cheapest — sorted so the biggest disagreements come first.

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Sorted by start time.

Upcoming games with the exchange winner price, the number of sportsbooks and, on Pro+, the sportsbook consensus and the largest gap.
GameExchange priceBooks
Carolina Hurricanes at Seattle KrakenNHL · Polymarket: CAR 72.5 % · SEA 27.5 %7
Washington Capitals at New Jersey DevilsNHL · Polymarket: WSH 41.5 % · NJ 58.5 %7
Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa SenatorsNHL · Polymarket: COL 51.5 % · OTT 48.5 %7
Montreal Canadiens at Boston BruinsNHL · Polymarket: MTL 46.5 % · BOS 53.5 %7
Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple LeafsNHL · Polymarket: MIN 62.5 % · TOR 37.5 %7
Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue JacketsNHL · Polymarket: TB 50.5 % · CBJ 49.5 %7
Detroit Red Wings at Florida PanthersNHL · Polymarket: DET 38.5 % · FLA 61.5 %7
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas StarsNHL · Polymarket: WPG 39.5 % · DAL 60.5 %7
Buffalo Sabres at Chicago BlackhawksNHL · Polymarket: BUF 58.5 % · CHI 41.5 %7
St. Louis Blues at Utah MammothNHL · Polymarket: STL 48.5 % · UTA 51.5 %7
New York Islanders at Los Angeles KingsNHL · Polymarket: NYI 46.0 % · LA 54.0 %7

Exchange prices are what traders pay before the venue's fee. Sportsbook odds include the book's margin; "fair" removes it proportionally. Best price is the lowest cost per $1 of payout. Data only — we do not link to or recommend any sportsbook.

Stanley Cup odds: Polymarket & Kalshi vs sportsbooks

What traders pay for each team on Polymarket and Kalshi, next to licensed US sportsbooks. A gap is not a signal on its own, but it is worth a look.

As of : for 15 of 16 teams, no Polymarket or Kalshi price is 3 points or more away from the no-vig consensus of licensed US sportsbooks. The median largest gap per team is 0.8 points.

Exchange prices are before the venue's fee. The consensus is the median of at least two sportsbooks' prices with their margin removed across the whole field. With this many outcomes that slightly overstates long shots, because books put more of their margin there. Teams priced below 2 % everywhere are left out of the count.

Consensus and gaps are part of Pro+

The sportsbook consensus without the margin, the gap per team and where each team is cheapest.

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Season futures by team with the Polymarket and Kalshi price, the number of sportsbooks and, on Pro+, the sportsbook consensus and the largest gap.
TeamPolymarketBooks
Colorado Avalanche9.5 %4
Carolina Hurricanes12.5 %4
Edmonton Oilers11.5 %4
Vegas Golden Knights7.5 %4
Florida Panthers5.5 %4
Tampa Bay Lightning4.5 %4
Minnesota Wild7.2 %4
New Jersey Devils6.8 %4
Dallas Stars5.5 %4
Washington Capitals3.8 %4
Utah Mammoth3.4 %4
Montreal Canadiens4.9 %4
Ottawa Senators3.0 %4
Boston Bruins2.9 %4
Buffalo Sabres1.7 %4
Los Angeles Kings1.8 %4
Toronto Maple Leafs2.7 %4
New York Rangers1.1 %4
Anaheim Ducks1.6 %4
Pittsburgh Penguins1.7 %4
St. Louis Blues0.6 %4
Columbus Blue Jackets1.1 %4
San Jose Sharks0.8 %4
Nashville Predators0.7 %4
New York Islanders0.5 %4
Seattle Kraken0.4 %4
Winnipeg Jets0.3 %4
Philadelphia Flyers0.4 %4
Detroit Red Wings0.2 %4
Chicago Blackhawks0.1 %4
Calgary Flames0.1 %4
Vancouver Canucks0.1 %4

Data only — we do not link to or recommend any sportsbook.