Sports · Venue comparison
UFC odds: Polymarket & Kalshi vs sportsbooks
Every UFC game in the next three days that has a Polymarket or Kalshi market and a winner price from licensed US sportsbooks.
Sportsbook odds read 1 hr. ago.
As of : in 12 of 12 games, no Polymarket or Kalshi winner price is 3 points or more away from the no-vig consensus of licensed US sportsbooks. The median largest gap per game is 1.4 points.
Exchange prices are before the venue's fee. The consensus is the median of at least two sportsbooks' winner prices with their margin removed; a gap is the difference in percentage points.
How prediction markets and sportsbooks differ
Consensus and gaps are part of Pro+
The sportsbook consensus without the margin, the largest gap per game and where each side is cheapest — sorted so the biggest disagreements come first.
Create an accountSorted by start time.
| Game | Exchange price | Books |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Elder vs Samuel SanchesUFC · | Polymarket: Evan Elder 47.5 % · Samuel Sanches 52.5 % | 5 |
| Macy Chiasson vs Bia MesquitaUFC · | Polymarket: Macy Chiasson 29.5 % · Bia Mesquita 70.5 % | 3 |
| Jared Gordon vs Melquizael CostaUFC · | Polymarket: Jared Gordon 22.5 % · Melquizael Costa 77.5 % | 5 |
| Donte Johnson vs Cesar AlmeidaUFC · | Polymarket: Donte Johnson 61.5 % · Cesar Almeida 38.5 % | 5 |
| Drew Dober vs Chris DuncanUFC · | Polymarket: Drew Dober 37.5 % · Chris Duncan 62.5 % | 5 |
| Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinneyUFC · | Polymarket: Jim Miller 33.0 % · Terrance McKinney 67.0 % | 5 |
| Stephen Thompson vs Charles RadtkeUFC · | Polymarket: Stephen Thompson 57.5 % · Charles Radtke 42.5 % | 4 |
| Bilal Hasan vs Luis GuruleUFC · | Polymarket: Bilal Hasan 89.0 % · Luis Gurule 11.0 % | 5 |
| Caio Borralho vs Yousri BelgarouiUFC · | Polymarket: Caio Borralho 58.5 % · Yousri Belgaroui 41.5 % | 5 |
| Uroš Medić vs Kevin HollandUFC · | Polymarket: Uroš Medić 58.5 % · Kevin Holland 41.5 % | 4 |
| Ciryl Gane vs Josh HokitUFC · | Polymarket: Ciryl Gane 63.5 % · Josh Hokit 36.5 % | 4 |
| Kayla Harrison vs Amanda NunesUFC · | Polymarket: Kayla Harrison 62.5 % · Amanda Nunes 37.5 % | 5 |
Exchange prices are what traders pay before the venue's fee. Sportsbook odds include the book's margin; "fair" removes it proportionally. Best price is the lowest cost per $1 of payout. Data only — we do not link to or recommend any sportsbook.