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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
14 %
chance
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
12 outcomesTotal volume
$122.7K
24h vol.
$63
1w vol.
$5.2K
1m vol.
$5.6K
Liquidity
$879.026
Bid / Ask
11¢ / 17¢
Spread 6¢
Last trade
13¢
Start date
Dec 31, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 92¢ | 222 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 49 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 137 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 36 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 48 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 48 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 290 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 85 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 100 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 50 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 63 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 63 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 91¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 91¢ | 3 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 3 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 207 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 30 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 30 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 17 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 17 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 17 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 17 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 17 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 17 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 17 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 30 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 46 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 46 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
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