Will Otzma win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Market brief

• Down 4.3 pp over the past week.
• Last 50 trades: 31 buys, 19 sells; the largest was $40 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (480 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 1 mo. (Nov 30, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 480 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 2.1% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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