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Updated 2 days ago

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

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45 %

chance

▲ +4.0%24h▲ +2.0%1W
Yes 45¢No 55¢

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

9 outcomes

Total volume

$693.6K

24h vol.

$14.2K

1w vol.

$100.9K

1m vol.

$317.1K

Liquidity

$78.4K

Bid / Ask

44¢ / 45¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

45¢

Start date

Sep 19, 2026

End date

Nov 30, 2026

ends in 1 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 8,870 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
39¢$4,413
38¢$16,955
37¢$73,211
36¢$4,226
35¢$695
34¢$710
33¢$525
32¢$355
31¢$534
30¢$400
Asks (sell)Size
40¢$3,393
41¢$11,790
42¢$23,511
43¢$3,335
44¢$1,239
45¢$261
48¢$10
49¢$171
50¢$5
52¢$1,000

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 97%Sells 3%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 days agoBuy40¢250
2 days agoSell40¢250
2 days agoBuy40¢70
2 days agoSell40¢70
2 days agoBuy61¢45
2 days agoBuy39¢45
2 days agoBuy40¢1,300
2 days agoSell40¢564
2 days agoBuy60¢210
2 days agoBuy60¢200
2 days agoBuy60¢200
2 days agoBuy60¢126
2 days agoBuy61¢4
2 days agoBuy39¢4
2 days agoBuy61¢91
2 days agoBuy39¢91
2 days agoBuy39¢14,885
2 days agoBuy61¢1,531
2 days agoBuy61¢200
2 days agoBuy61¢823
2 days agoSell39¢107
2 days agoSell39¢107
2 days agoSell39¢107
2 days agoSell39¢7
2 days agoSell39¢7
2 days agoSell39¢7
2 days agoBuy61¢210
2 days agoBuy61¢2,000
2 days agoSell39¢9
2 days agoBuy61¢9,771
2 days agoBuy40¢200
2 days agoBuy60¢200
2 days agoBuy40¢823
2 days agoBuy60¢374
2 days agoBuy60¢449
2 days agoBuy39¢133
2 days agoBuy61¢133
2 days agoBuy39¢15
2 days agoBuy61¢15
2 days agoBuy39¢95
2 days agoBuy61¢81
2 days agoBuy61¢13
2 days agoBuy62¢20
2 days agoBuy38¢20
2 days agoBuy62¢193
2 days agoBuy38¢193
2 days agoBuy38¢2,589
2 days agoBuy62¢360
2 days agoBuy62¢1,193
2 days agoBuy62¢210

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