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Updated 3 hr. ago

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

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61 %

chance

▲ +5.0%24h▲ +1.0%1W
Yes 61¢No 40¢

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

9 outcomes

Total volume

$307K

24h vol.

$31.5K

1w vol.

$190.3K

1m vol.

$307K

Liquidity

$52.7K

Bid / Ask

60¢ / 61¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

61¢

Start date

Oct 1, 2026

End date

Nov 16, 2026

ends in 4 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 8,870 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
60¢$2,134
59¢$4,631
58¢$942
56¢$5
54¢$37
53¢$300
52¢$200
51¢$296
50¢$1,600
49¢$110
Asks (sell)Size
61¢$7,617
62¢$5,176
63¢$1,658
64¢$320
65¢$103
67¢$10
68¢$100
69¢$29
70¢$100
71¢$35

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 43%Sells 57%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
4 hr. agoBuy40¢38
4 hr. agoSell40¢38
6 hr. agoBuy61¢7
6 hr. agoSell61¢7
8 hr. agoSell39¢1,000
8 hr. agoSell61¢981
8 hr. agoSell61¢19
9 hr. agoBuy60¢64
9 hr. agoSell60¢56
9 hr. agoBuy40¢8
9 hr. agoBuy60¢600
9 hr. agoBuy40¢192
9 hr. agoSell60¢408
9 hr. agoBuy60¢1,000
9 hr. agoSell60¢1,000
9 hr. agoBuy60¢1,000
9 hr. agoSell60¢749
9 hr. agoBuy40¢251
10 hr. agoBuy60¢800
10 hr. agoBuy40¢249
10 hr. agoSell60¢200
10 hr. agoBuy40¢351
10 hr. agoBuy60¢17
10 hr. agoBuy40¢17
11 hr. agoBuy60¢70
11 hr. agoBuy40¢70
12 hr. agoSell58¢2
12 hr. agoBuy58¢2
15 hr. agoBuy42¢7
15 hr. agoSell42¢7
15 hr. agoBuy59¢64
15 hr. agoSell59¢64
15 hr. agoSell41¢10
15 hr. agoBuy41¢10
15 hr. agoBuy59¢2,157
15 hr. agoSell59¢1,649
15 hr. agoBuy41¢200
15 hr. agoBuy41¢200
15 hr. agoBuy41¢50
15 hr. agoSell59¢58
16 hr. agoSell58¢1,772
16 hr. agoBuy58¢10
16 hr. agoSell42¢1,562
16 hr. agoSell42¢200
16 hr. agoSell58¢226
16 hr. agoBuy58¢121
16 hr. agoSell42¢41
16 hr. agoBuy58¢50
16 hr. agoSell42¢14
16 hr. agoSell40¢2

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