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Updated 4 hr. ago

US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

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34 %

chance

▲ +1.0%24h▼ −1.0%1W
Yes 34¢No 67¢

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

9 outcomes

Total volume

$561K

24h vol.

$29.1K

1w vol.

$152.3K

1m vol.

$560.4K

Liquidity

$105.9K

Bid / Ask

33¢ / 34¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

34¢

Start date

Sep 19, 2026

End date

Dec 31, 2026

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
33¢$11,121
32¢$14,027
31¢$55,654
30¢$4,691
29¢$210
28¢$546
27¢$546
26¢$546
9¢$5
8¢$500
Asks (sell)Size
34¢$924
35¢$7,264
36¢$5,162
37¢$1,630
38¢$38
42¢$200
43¢$23
44¢$300
45¢$400
46¢$1,100

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

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uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 54%Sells 46%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
5 hr. agoBuy67¢172
5 hr. agoSell67¢172
5 hr. agoBuy68¢3
5 hr. agoBuy32¢3
5 hr. agoBuy34¢294
5 hr. agoSell34¢288
5 hr. agoBuy67¢6
6 hr. agoBuy33¢105
6 hr. agoBuy67¢105
9 hr. agoBuy34¢6
9 hr. agoSell34¢6
10 hr. agoBuy34¢600
10 hr. agoSell34¢600
10 hr. agoSell33¢3
10 hr. agoBuy33¢3
10 hr. agoBuy34¢29
10 hr. agoBuy66¢29
13 hr. agoBuy67¢164
13 hr. agoBuy33¢164
13 hr. agoBuy33¢10
13 hr. agoBuy67¢10
13 hr. agoBuy33¢187
13 hr. agoBuy67¢187
13 hr. agoBuy33¢44
13 hr. agoBuy67¢28
13 hr. agoBuy67¢16
13 hr. agoBuy33¢27
13 hr. agoBuy67¢27
16 hr. agoBuy67¢884
16 hr. agoBuy33¢400
16 hr. agoBuy33¢202
16 hr. agoSell67¢282
16 hr. agoSell33¢1,009
16 hr. agoSell67¢718
16 hr. agoBuy33¢291
16 hr. agoBuy67¢200
16 hr. agoSell67¢200
16 hr. agoBuy34¢1,471
16 hr. agoBuy66¢1,054
16 hr. agoSell34¢10
16 hr. agoBuy66¢200
16 hr. agoSell34¢207
17 hr. agoBuy67¢79
17 hr. agoSell67¢79
18 hr. agoSell66¢1,202
18 hr. agoSell34¢1,202
18 hr. agoSell33¢3
18 hr. agoSell67¢3
19 hr. agoBuy34¢67
19 hr. agoSell34¢67

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