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Updated 6 hr. ago

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?

TechCulture

100 %

chance

▲ +4.1%24h▲ +7.2%1W
Yes 100¢No 0¢
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Market brief

  • At 100%, the market sees this question as practically decided.
  • Up 7.2 pp over the past week (+4.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 90% on Nov 12, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 32 buys, 18 sells; the largest was $7.08K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 98% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 95–100% seven days before the end resolved YES (361 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 wk. (Dec 1, 2026).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

✦ AI assessment

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

6 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$33.9K

24h vol.

$13K

Liquidity

$12K

End date

Dec 1, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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  • Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$18.9K

1m vol.

$28.6K

Bid / Ask

100¢ / 100¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

100¢

Start date

Sep 28, 2026

Orderbook

Bids (buy)Size
100¢$9,088
100¢$349
100¢$8
100¢$5
99¢$561
99¢$374
98¢$30
98¢$77
98¢$187
98¢$50
Asks (sell)Size

No orders

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 84%Sells 16%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
8 hr. agoSell100¢627
8 hr. agoSell100¢978
8 hr. agoBuy100¢7,088
8 hr. agoBuy100¢978
8 hr. agoBuy100¢914
8 hr. agoBuy97¢39
8 hr. agoBuy97¢200
9 hr. agoSell94¢170
11 hr. agoBuy98¢1,020
12 hr. agoBuy98¢1,000
2 days agoBuy97¢1
2 days agoBuy93¢57
2 days agoSell89¢0
2 days agoBuy92¢4
2 days agoBuy92¢4
2 days agoBuy92¢49
2 days agoSell88¢50
2 days agoSell93¢345
2 days agoSell88¢22
2 days agoSell95¢20
2 days agoSell95¢20
2 days agoSell95¢0
2 days agoSell95¢40
2 days agoSell95¢60
4 days agoSell93¢1
4 days agoSell95¢255
4 days agoSell96¢259
4 days agoBuy98¢241
4 days agoBuy98¢200
5 days agoSell96¢23
5 days agoBuy96¢34
5 days agoSell96¢78
5 days agoBuy98¢10
5 days agoBuy98¢50
5 days agoBuy98¢20
5 days agoBuy98¢40
5 days agoBuy98¢20
5 days agoBuy98¢20
5 days agoBuy98¢140
5 days agoBuy98¢20
5 days agoBuy96¢20
5 days agoBuy95¢1,978
6 days agoBuy95¢1,310
6 days agoBuy95¢27
6 days agoBuy95¢0
6 days agoBuy95¢195
7 days agoBuy95¢20
7 days agoBuy93¢250
7 days agoSell91¢3
1 wk. agoBuy95¢10
Rules & resolution

If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Event:
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
Resolution source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm8wRjD3xVA

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