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Updated 6 hr. ago

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?

TechCulture

100 %

chance

▲ +28.0%24h▲ +77.5%1W
Yes 100¢No 0¢
Watch this market

Market brief

  • At 100%, the market sees this question as practically decided.
  • Up 77.5 pp over the past week (+28.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 17% on Nov 7, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 30 buys, 20 sells; the largest was $2.09K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 98% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 95–100% one day before the end resolved YES (1,528 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 days (Nov 16, 2026).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

✦ AI assessment

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

6 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$24.2K

24h vol.

$11K

Liquidity

$9.1K

End date

Nov 16, 2026

ends in 2 days

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$14.7K

1m vol.

$21.3K

Bid / Ask

100¢ / 100¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

100¢

Start date

Oct 1, 2026

Orderbook

Bids (buy)Size
100¢$5,248
100¢$20
99¢$500
96¢$39
96¢$38
91¢$20
85¢$57
85¢$64
84¢$20
84¢$64
Asks (sell)Size

No orders

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 66%Sells 34%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
8 hr. agoSell100¢300
8 hr. agoSell100¢1,000
8 hr. agoSell100¢5
8 hr. agoSell100¢1,120
8 hr. agoSell100¢20
8 hr. agoBuy100¢232
8 hr. agoSell99¢15
8 hr. agoSell99¢100
8 hr. agoSell99¢9
8 hr. agoBuy99¢2,120
8 hr. agoBuy91¢5
8 hr. agoSell91¢5
8 hr. agoBuy91¢80
8 hr. agoBuy93¢19
8 hr. agoBuy90¢59
9 hr. agoSell86¢7
9 hr. agoSell91¢124
9 hr. agoSell95¢15
9 hr. agoBuy97¢207
9 hr. agoSell91¢5
9 hr. agoBuy90¢122
9 hr. agoBuy90¢20
9 hr. agoBuy89¢633
9 hr. agoBuy90¢108
9 hr. agoBuy90¢20
9 hr. agoSell85¢20
9 hr. agoSell89¢212
9 hr. agoSell88¢20
9 hr. agoSell88¢20
9 hr. agoSell88¢20
9 hr. agoSell88¢20
10 hr. agoBuy90¢1
11 hr. agoBuy90¢12
11 hr. agoBuy90¢50
11 hr. agoBuy90¢50
11 hr. agoBuy90¢57
11 hr. agoBuy90¢50
11 hr. agoBuy90¢88
11 hr. agoSell90¢40
12 hr. agoBuy93¢9
12 hr. agoBuy93¢457
12 hr. agoBuy89¢50
12 hr. agoBuy85¢1,359
12 hr. agoBuy82¢1
12 hr. agoBuy81¢10
12 hr. agoBuy81¢1
12 hr. agoBuy80¢9
12 hr. agoBuy81¢20
12 hr. agoBuy81¢60
12 hr. agoBuy81¢20
Rules & resolution

If the 15th SpaceX Starship flight test lifts off from its launch pad by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Liftoff is defined as the vehicle rising off the launch mount under its own power; a static fire, a hold, or an abort after ignition does not count. Any subsequent anomaly after liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Event:
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
Resolution source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm8wRjD3xVA

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