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Updated 6 hr. ago

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster?

TechCulture

0 %

chance

▼ −83.0%24h▼ −75.4%1W
Yes 0¢No 100¢
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Market brief

  • At 0%, the market sees this question as practically decided.
  • Down 75.4 pp over the past week (−83.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 86% on Nov 11, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 25 buys, 25 sells; the largest was $4.01K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 3% of Polymarket Tech markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (164 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 8 mo. (Jul 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

✦ AI assessment

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

6 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$29.8K

24h vol.

$21.5K

Liquidity

$13.1K

End date

Jul 1, 2027

ends in 8 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$22.3K

1m vol.

$25.9K

Last trade

0¢

Start date

Sep 28, 2026

Orderbook

Bids (buy)Size

No orders

Asks (sell)Size
0¢$3,218
1¢$9
1¢$77
1¢$1,664
1¢$2,000
2¢$89
5¢$100
7¢$2,050
7¢$1,000
8¢$51

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 55%Sells 45%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
8 hr. agoBuy0¢11
8 hr. agoSell0¢4,010
8 hr. agoSell0¢290
8 hr. agoSell0¢286
8 hr. agoSell0¢20
8 hr. agoSell0¢10
8 hr. agoSell0¢40
8 hr. agoSell0¢30
8 hr. agoBuy1¢2,403
8 hr. agoSell0¢200
8 hr. agoBuy1¢3,392
8 hr. agoSell0¢12
8 hr. agoBuy1¢68
8 hr. agoSell1¢200
8 hr. agoSell1¢7
8 hr. agoSell1¢3
8 hr. agoSell0¢507
8 hr. agoBuy0¢2,718
8 hr. agoBuy7¢40
8 hr. agoBuy3¢191
8 hr. agoSell3¢9
8 hr. agoBuy7¢15
8 hr. agoBuy8¢200
8 hr. agoBuy7¢10
8 hr. agoBuy6¢50
8 hr. agoBuy5¢10
8 hr. agoBuy5¢20
8 hr. agoSell6¢5
8 hr. agoSell6¢31
8 hr. agoBuy6¢5
8 hr. agoSell4¢107
8 hr. agoSell8¢5
8 hr. agoSell13¢56
8 hr. agoSell15¢1,294
8 hr. agoSell54¢85
8 hr. agoSell49¢981
8 hr. agoBuy88¢12
8 hr. agoBuy88¢3
8 hr. agoSell80¢5
8 hr. agoBuy87¢231
8 hr. agoBuy82¢247
8 hr. agoBuy79¢379
8 hr. agoBuy80¢50
8 hr. agoBuy79¢168
8 hr. agoBuy79¢5
8 hr. agoBuy79¢10
8 hr. agoBuy79¢10
8 hr. agoBuy78¢8
8 hr. agoSell77¢10
8 hr. agoSell78¢203
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 15th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 15th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 15th launch, and this market will stay open until the 15th launch has occurred. If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Event:
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
Resolution source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm8wRjD3xVA

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