Updated 27 min. ago
Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
54 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 14.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after dipping to 37% on Nov 14, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 34 buys, 16 sells; the largest was $100 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 49% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (11,450 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 8 mo. (Jul 1, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
6 outcomesUnderstand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$22.6K
24h vol.
$10.6K
Liquidity
$1.7K
End date
Jul 1, 2027
ends in 8 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$11.2K
1m vol.
$17.1K
Bid / Ask
50¢ / 57¢
Spread 7¢
Last trade
56¢
Start date
Sep 28, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 14¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 min. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 10 |
| 28 min. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 2 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 55¢ | 2 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 9 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 4 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 51¢ | 8 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 39¢ | 8 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 9 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 5 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 39¢ | 7 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 5 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 38¢ | 5 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 29¢ | 19 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 29¢ | 30 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 27¢ | 32 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 21 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 46¢ | 14 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 51¢ | 10 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 10 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 10 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 11 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 5 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 11 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 63¢ | 2 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 61¢ | 8 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 61¢ | 8 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 61¢ | 8 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 21 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 8 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 36¢ | 16 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 17 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 51¢ | 5 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 63¢ | 12 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 5 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 63¢ | 8 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 61¢ | 82 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 62¢ | 10 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 62¢ | 10 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 62¢ | 8 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 10 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 10 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 58¢ | 10 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 2 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 8 |
| 7 hr. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 61 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 51¢ | 17 |
| 7 hr. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 125 |
| 7 hr. ago | Sell | 26¢ | 135 |
| 7 hr. ago | Sell | 55¢ | 142 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 15th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 15th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 15th launch, and this market will stay open until the 15th launch has occurred. If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
- Event:
- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
- Resolution source:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm8wRjD3xVA
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