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Updated 27 min. ago

Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

TechCulture

54 %

chance

▲ +4.0%1h▲ +14.5%24h▲ +2.0%1W
Yes 54¢No 47¢

Market brief

  • Up 14.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after dipping to 37% on Nov 14, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 34 buys, 16 sells; the largest was $100 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 49% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (11,450 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 8 mo. (Jul 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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50%
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Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$22.6K

24h vol.

$10.6K

Liquidity

$1.7K

End date

Jul 1, 2027

ends in 8 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$11.2K

1m vol.

$17.1K

Bid / Ask

50¢ / 57¢

Spread 7¢

Last trade

56¢

Start date

Sep 28, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 14¢
Bids (buy)Size
42¢$5
41¢$19
39¢$265
35¢$5
27¢$30
25¢$20
20¢$20
19¢$335
15¢$579
12¢$1,169
Asks (sell)Size
56¢$5
57¢$10
58¢$10
59¢$17
60¢$132
65¢$11
79¢$26
80¢$513
81¢$291
82¢$3,000

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 36%Sells 64%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
28 min. agoBuy50¢10
28 min. agoBuy50¢2
1 hr. agoBuy55¢2
1 hr. agoBuy57¢9
2 hr. agoBuy52¢4
2 hr. agoBuy51¢8
2 hr. agoSell39¢8
2 hr. agoSell45¢9
2 hr. agoBuy50¢5
2 hr. agoSell39¢7
2 hr. agoBuy36¢5
2 hr. agoSell38¢5
2 hr. agoSell29¢19
2 hr. agoSell29¢30
2 hr. agoSell27¢32
2 hr. agoSell45¢21
2 hr. agoSell46¢14
2 hr. agoSell51¢10
3 hr. agoBuy45¢10
3 hr. agoBuy45¢10
3 hr. agoBuy59¢11
3 hr. agoBuy57¢7
3 hr. agoBuy56¢5
3 hr. agoBuy56¢11
4 hr. agoBuy63¢2
4 hr. agoBuy61¢8
4 hr. agoBuy61¢8
4 hr. agoBuy61¢8
4 hr. agoBuy60¢21
4 hr. agoBuy59¢8
4 hr. agoSell36¢16
5 hr. agoBuy59¢17
5 hr. agoSell51¢5
5 hr. agoBuy63¢12
5 hr. agoBuy60¢5
5 hr. agoBuy63¢8
5 hr. agoBuy61¢82
6 hr. agoBuy62¢10
6 hr. agoBuy62¢10
6 hr. agoBuy62¢8
6 hr. agoBuy60¢10
6 hr. agoBuy60¢10
6 hr. agoBuy58¢10
6 hr. agoBuy60¢2
6 hr. agoBuy57¢8
7 hr. agoSell22¢61
7 hr. agoBuy51¢17
7 hr. agoSell20¢125
7 hr. agoSell26¢135
7 hr. agoSell55¢142
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 15th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 15th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 15th launch, and this market will stay open until the 15th launch has occurred. If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Event:
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

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