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Updated 6 hr. ago

Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?

TechCulture

100 %

chance

▲ +73.3%24h▲ +78.3%1W
Yes 100¢No 0¢
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Market brief

  • At 100%, the market sees this question as practically decided.
  • Up 78.3 pp over the past week (+73.3 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 16% on Nov 13, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 36 buys, 14 sells; the largest was $9.41K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 98% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 95–100% seven days before the end resolved YES (361 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 8 mo. (Jul 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

✦ AI assessment

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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

6 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$26.6K

24h vol.

$20.4K

Liquidity

$9.1K

End date

Jul 1, 2027

ends in 8 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$21K

1m vol.

$25.9K

Bid / Ask

100¢ / 100¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

100¢

Start date

Sep 28, 2026

Orderbook

Bids (buy)Size
100¢$300
99¢$2,922
99¢$900
99¢$2,000
99¢$77
99¢$300
98¢$300
98¢$300
98¢$226
73¢$24
Asks (sell)Size

No orders

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 92%Sells 8%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
7 hr. agoSell99¢384
8 hr. agoBuy100¢9,416
8 hr. agoBuy100¢500
8 hr. agoBuy100¢655
8 hr. agoSell98¢74
8 hr. agoBuy100¢70
8 hr. agoBuy100¢1,111
8 hr. agoBuy100¢102
8 hr. agoBuy98¢5
8 hr. agoBuy98¢510
8 hr. agoBuy97¢227
8 hr. agoBuy97¢149
8 hr. agoBuy97¢102
8 hr. agoBuy97¢61
8 hr. agoBuy97¢76
8 hr. agoBuy97¢31
8 hr. agoBuy98¢1,000
8 hr. agoBuy95¢300
8 hr. agoSell97¢667
8 hr. agoBuy97¢667
8 hr. agoBuy98¢10
8 hr. agoBuy93¢172
8 hr. agoSell99¢21
8 hr. agoBuy19¢77
8 hr. agoSell28¢12
8 hr. agoBuy87¢23
8 hr. agoBuy87¢1,391
8 hr. agoSell70¢1
8 hr. agoSell70¢8
8 hr. agoBuy59¢757
8 hr. agoBuy31¢645
8 hr. agoSell6¢20
8 hr. agoSell13¢266
8 hr. agoBuy20¢10
8 hr. agoBuy20¢30
8 hr. agoSell20¢20
8 hr. agoBuy23¢25
8 hr. agoSell20¢19
8 hr. agoSell20¢63
8 hr. agoBuy21¢48
9 hr. agoBuy18¢20
9 hr. agoBuy18¢39
12 hr. agoBuy19¢0
12 hr. agoBuy18¢20
12 hr. agoBuy18¢6
12 hr. agoBuy17¢20
12 hr. agoBuy17¢40
13 hr. agoSell16¢4
13 hr. agoSell16¢4
14 hr. agoBuy17¢6
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Event:
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
Resolution source:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm8wRjD3xVA

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