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Updated 2 hr. ago

Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Russia by December 31?
6 %
chance
Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
10 outcomesTotal volume
$21.7K
24h vol.
$3.6K
1w vol.
$21.7K
1m vol.
$21.7K
Liquidity
$18.3K
Bid / Ask
5¢ / 6¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
5¢
Start date
Oct 14, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 1,182 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 13.7% resolved YES. That is 4.0 points more often than their average price of 9.7% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 41 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 23 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 18 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 120 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 45 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 9 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 41 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 20 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 4 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 97 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 16 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 81 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 24 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 24 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 63 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 43 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 72 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 12 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 60 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 20 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 80 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 80 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 136 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 72 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 44 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 60 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 36 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 24 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 80 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 80 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 3 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 3 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 3 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 3 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 40 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 40 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 1,946 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 181 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 20 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 200 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 60 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 60 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 40 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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