Skip to content

← Dashboard · Geopolitics

Updated 3 days ago

Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Iran by December 31?

Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Iran by December 31?

Tech
Log in for watchlist

3 %

chance

▲ +0.0%24h
Yes 3¢No 97¢

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

10 outcomes

Total volume

$9.1K

24h vol.

$3.9K

1w vol.

$9K

1m vol.

$9K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

2¢ / 4¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

4¢

Start date

Oct 14, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 152 resolved Polymarket Geopolitics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 2.6% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.4%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
2¢$585
2¢$645
1¢$1,000
1¢$65
1¢$816
0¢$2,520
0¢$226
0¢$240
0¢$10,215
Asks (sell)Size
4¢$48
4¢$100
4¢$110
5¢$130
5¢$570
6¢$750
6¢$61
9¢$20
9¢$200
10¢$5

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 33%Sells 67%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
4 days agoSell2¢100
4 days agoBuy2¢100
4 days agoBuy3¢50
4 days agoBuy97¢50
4 days agoBuy3¢29
4 days agoSell3¢29
4 days agoSell2¢208
4 days agoSell98¢208
4 days agoSell2¢150
4 days agoSell98¢150
4 days agoSell97¢100
4 days agoSell3¢100
4 days agoSell2¢100
4 days agoSell98¢100
4 days agoSell2¢23
4 days agoSell98¢23
4 days agoSell2¢50
4 days agoSell98¢50
4 days agoSell1¢131
4 days agoBuy1¢114
4 days agoBuy1¢17
4 days agoSell2¢5
4 days agoBuy2¢5
4 days agoSell3¢50
4 days agoSell97¢50
4 days agoSell3¢50
4 days agoBuy3¢50
4 days agoSell3¢219
4 days agoBuy3¢219
4 days agoSell4¢300
4 days agoBuy3¢38
4 days agoBuy3¢100
4 days agoBuy3¢50
4 days agoSell96¢100
4 days agoSell96¢12
4 days agoSell4¢50
4 days agoBuy4¢50
4 days agoSell4¢50
4 days agoBuy4¢50
4 days agoSell4¢50
4 days agoBuy4¢50
4 days agoSell4¢2
4 days agoBuy4¢2
4 days agoBuy96¢80
4 days agoBuy4¢76
4 days agoBuy4¢4
4 days agoSell4¢100
4 days agoBuy4¢100
4 days agoBuy96¢5
4 days agoBuy4¢5

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.

Smart money is a Pro+ feature

See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

Related markets

The most-traded open Geopolitics markets from other events.