Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?

Market brief

• Last 50 trades: 8 buys, 42 sells; the largest was $2.54K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before the end resolved YES (624 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 19 hr. (Oct 28, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 624 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 0.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.

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• France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?7 %▼ −3.0%

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