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Updated 2 wk. ago

Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 51.5 or higher?

Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 51.5 or higher?

TechCultureEconomy

76 %

chance

▼ −0.5%1h▲ +0.5%24h▲ +23.5%1W
Yes 76¢No 24¢
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Market brief

  • Up 23.5 pp over the past week, after touching 91% on Oct 29, 2026.
  • Historically, 69% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before the end resolved YES (2,351 cases). That is less often than their average price of 73% implied — prices in this range have run high.
  • Scheduled to end in 6 mo. (May 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)

5 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$546.791

24h vol.

$146

Liquidity

$348.241

End date

May 1, 2027

ends in 6 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

Bid / Ask

64¢ / 88¢

Spread 24¢

Last trade

94¢

Start date

Oct 28, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
90¢$40
89¢$25
88¢$1,323
87¢$41
77¢$60
41¢$158
4¢$6
3¢$11
2¢$5,000
1¢$282
Asks (sell)Size
91¢$50
92¢$5
93¢$1,274
94¢$41
97¢$9
98¢$174
99¢$291

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (8)

Buys 72%Sells 28%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 wk. agoSell88¢21
2 wk. agoBuy87¢60
2 wk. agoBuy86¢5
2 wk. agoBuy86¢5
2 wk. agoSell77¢5
2 wk. agoBuy86¢20
2 wk. agoSell84¢15
2 wk. agoBuy50¢15
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the general fertility rate (births per 1,000 women aged 15–44) in the United States in 2026 is equal to or greater than the listed value, as reported in the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) annual provisional births report for 2026, meaning the first NCHS report that presents provisional birth data for the full calendar year 2026, regardless of its exact title or format (see 2025 example, “Births: Provisional Data for 2025”: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf), estimated to be released in April 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Provisional counts or estimates covering only part of 2026, and full-year figures published only in data dashboards, data files, or statistical tables rather than in such a report, will not be considered. The report is expected to be made available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm If NCHS does not release its annual provisional births report for 2026 by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The relevant data will be the general fertility rate in the United States in 2026 as stated in the annual provisional births report for 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of this report will not be considered for this market’s resolution.

Event:
US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)

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