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Updated 2 wk. ago

Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 52.5 or higher?

Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 52.5 or higher?

TechCultureEconomy

31 %

chance

▲ +0.5%1h▲ +3.0%24h▲ +8.5%1W
Yes 31¢No 70¢
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Market brief

  • Up 8.5 pp over the past week (+3.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 53% on Oct 28, 2026.
  • Last 18 trades: 6 buys, 12 sells; the largest was $334 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 30% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (4,522 cases). That is more often than their average price of 26% implied — prices in this range have run low.
  • Scheduled to end in 6 mo. (May 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)

5 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$2.1K

24h vol.

$1.3K

Liquidity

$201.662

End date

May 1, 2027

ends in 6 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

Bid / Ask

20¢ / 41¢

Spread 21¢

Last trade

25¢

Start date

Oct 28, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
31¢$60
17¢$20
5¢$101
4¢$100
3¢$100
2¢$100
1¢$290
Asks (sell)Size
32¢$15
33¢$40
51¢$168
52¢$234
67¢$45
72¢$80
96¢$8
97¢$39
99¢$284

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (18)

Buys 36%Sells 64%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 wk. agoSell41¢20
2 wk. agoBuy34¢20
2 wk. agoSell40¢14
2 wk. agoSell41¢6
2 wk. agoSell41¢20
2 wk. agoSell42¢55
2 wk. agoSell45¢20
2 wk. agoSell47¢46
2 wk. agoBuy44¢8
2 wk. agoBuy44¢60
2 wk. agoSell44¢20
2 wk. agoBuy40¢338
2 wk. agoBuy45¢40
2 wk. agoSell36¢20
2 wk. agoSell41¢13
2 wk. agoSell52¢691
2 wk. agoSell72¢20
2 wk. agoBuy23¢60
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the general fertility rate (births per 1,000 women aged 15–44) in the United States in 2026 is equal to or greater than the listed value, as reported in the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) annual provisional births report for 2026, meaning the first NCHS report that presents provisional birth data for the full calendar year 2026, regardless of its exact title or format (see 2025 example, “Births: Provisional Data for 2025”: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf), estimated to be released in April 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Provisional counts or estimates covering only part of 2026, and full-year figures published only in data dashboards, data files, or statistical tables rather than in such a report, will not be considered. The report is expected to be made available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm If NCHS does not release its annual provisional births report for 2026 by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The relevant data will be the general fertility rate in the United States in 2026 as stated in the annual provisional births report for 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of this report will not be considered for this market’s resolution.

Event:
US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)

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