Skip to content

← Tech odds

Updated 4 days ago

Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 53.0 or higher?

Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 53.0 or higher?

TechCultureEconomy

50 %

chance

▼ −1.0%24h▲ +27.0%1W
Yes 50¢No 51¢
Watch this market

Market brief

  • Up 27.0 pp over the past week (−1.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 22% on Nov 4, 2026.
  • Historically, 49% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (11,356 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 6 mo. (May 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

◆ Your call

What's your number?

Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.

50%
Saved in this browser only. No account needed.

Result by email

Find out how it ends

One email when this market resolves. No account needed.

We send a confirmation link first. After the result email, we delete your address. Privacy

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

Request analysisPart of every plan · 7 days for $3

US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)

5 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$129.999

Liquidity

$23.934

End date

May 1, 2027

ends in 6 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
  • Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
See plans · 7 days for $3
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

Bid / Ask

10¢ / 89¢

Spread 79¢

Last trade

25¢

Start date

Oct 28, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 26¢
Bids (buy)Size
9¢$20
5¢$55
4¢$167
3¢$100
2¢$100
1¢$98
Asks (sell)Size
35¢$38
50¢$60
98¢$20
99¢$85

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (4)

Buys 69%Sells 31%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 wk. agoBuy43¢9
2 wk. agoSell13¢30
2 wk. agoSell13¢1
2 wk. agoBuy10¢60
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the general fertility rate (births per 1,000 women aged 15–44) in the United States in 2026 is equal to or greater than the listed value, as reported in the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) annual provisional births report for 2026, meaning the first NCHS report that presents provisional birth data for the full calendar year 2026, regardless of its exact title or format (see 2025 example, “Births: Provisional Data for 2025”: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf), estimated to be released in April 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Provisional counts or estimates covering only part of 2026, and full-year figures published only in data dashboards, data files, or statistical tables rather than in such a report, will not be considered. The report is expected to be made available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm If NCHS does not release its annual provisional births report for 2026 by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The relevant data will be the general fertility rate in the United States in 2026 as stated in the annual provisional births report for 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of this report will not be considered for this market’s resolution.

Event:
US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)

Related markets

Open Tech markets from other events — closest to this one first.

Keep exploring

Moving today

Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.

Daily Forecast ChallengeThree real markets, one guess each — then see how you compare to the crowd and the AI.