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Updated 15 min. ago
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by November 30?
69 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 40.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after dipping to 22% on Oct 31, 2026.
- Historically, 68% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before the end resolved YES (2,145 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 4 wk. (Dec 1, 2026).
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Who will Trump speak to by November 30?
22 outcomes- Xi Jinping95 %
- Mark Carney94 %
- Vladimir Putin84 %
- Mohammed bin Salman83 %
- Ursula von der Leyen69 %
- Emmanuel Macron68 %
- Elon Musk65 %
- Andy Burnham63 %
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy61 %
- Lula da Silva61 %
- Friedrich Merz56 %
- Mark Rutte56 %
- Ahmed al-Sharaa32 %
- Kim Jong Un13 %
- Maria Corina Machado9 %
- Pope Leo XIV6 %
- Reza Pahlavi6 %
- Mojtaba Khamenei3 %
- Miguel Díaz-Canel3 %
- Nicolás Maduro2 %
- Masoud Pezeshkian2 %
- Yoon Suk Yeol1 %
Total volume
$89.3K
24h vol.
$42.1K
1w vol.
$89.3K
1m vol.
$89.3K
Liquidity
$826.31
Bid / Ask
59¢ / 78¢
Spread 19¢
Last trade
45¢
Start date
Oct 31, 2026
End date
Dec 1, 2026
ends in 4 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 2,145 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.3% resolved YES. That is 4.8 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 19¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
Failed to load trades: Upstream request failed (410) for https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0xacf5e7b7d1541bf7d741b6e68e75c316a959b823b4f544476523a00ad095380f&limit=50&takerOnly=true
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