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Updated 3 days ago
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by November 30?
61 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 12.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 81% on Oct 31, 2026.
- Historically, 46% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (108 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 4 wk. (Dec 1, 2026).
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Who will Trump speak to by November 30?
22 outcomes- Xi Jinping95 %
- Mark Carney94 %
- Vladimir Putin84 %
- Mohammed bin Salman83 %
- Emmanuel Macron68 %
- Elon Musk65 %
- Andy Burnham63 %
- Lula da Silva61 %
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy61 %
- Ursula von der Leyen59 %
- Friedrich Merz56 %
- Mark Rutte56 %
- Ahmed al-Sharaa32 %
- Kim Jong Un13 %
- Maria Corina Machado9 %
- Pope Leo XIV6 %
- Reza Pahlavi6 %
- Mojtaba Khamenei3 %
- Miguel Díaz-Canel3 %
- Nicolás Maduro2 %
- Masoud Pezeshkian2 %
- Yoon Suk Yeol1 %
Total volume
$2.6K
24h vol.
$137.55
1w vol.
$2.6K
1m vol.
$2.6K
Liquidity
$385.666
Bid / Ask
58¢ / 64¢
Spread 6¢
Last trade
62¢
Start date
Oct 31, 2026
End date
Dec 1, 2026
ends in 4 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 108 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 46.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 47.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 76¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (4)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 days ago | Sell | 78¢ | 2 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 81¢ | 100 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 78¢ | 18 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 34¢ | 80 |
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