← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 3 days ago
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by November 30?
56 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 3.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after dipping to 50% on Oct 31, 2026.
- Historically, 46% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (108 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 4 wk. (Dec 1, 2026).
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Who will Trump speak to by November 30?
22 outcomes- Xi Jinping95 %
- Mark Carney94 %
- Vladimir Putin84 %
- Mohammed bin Salman83 %
- Emmanuel Macron68 %
- Elon Musk65 %
- Andy Burnham63 %
- Lula da Silva61 %
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy61 %
- Ursula von der Leyen59 %
- Friedrich Merz56 %
- Mark Rutte56 %
- Ahmed al-Sharaa32 %
- Kim Jong Un13 %
- Maria Corina Machado9 %
- Pope Leo XIV6 %
- Reza Pahlavi6 %
- Mojtaba Khamenei3 %
- Miguel Díaz-Canel3 %
- Nicolás Maduro2 %
- Masoud Pezeshkian2 %
- Yoon Suk Yeol1 %
Total volume
$8.5K
24h vol.
$2.6K
1w vol.
$8.5K
1m vol.
$8.5K
Liquidity
$22.9K
Bid / Ask
54¢ / 59¢
Spread 5¢
Last trade
54¢
Start date
Oct 31, 2026
End date
Dec 1, 2026
ends in 4 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 108 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 46.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 47.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
No trades were found for this market.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House6 %▲ +0.0%
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?95 %▲ +0.0%
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?37 %▲ +5.0%
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0 %▲ +0.1%
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?26 %▼ −1.0%
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?23 %▼ −6.0%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.