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Updated 3 days ago
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV by November 30?
6 %
chance
Market brief
- Last 14 trades: 6 buys, 8 sells; the largest was $243 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 9% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (276 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 4 wk. (Dec 1, 2026).
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Who will Trump speak to by November 30?
22 outcomes- Xi Jinping95 %
- Mark Carney94 %
- Vladimir Putin84 %
- Mohammed bin Salman83 %
- Emmanuel Macron68 %
- Elon Musk65 %
- Andy Burnham63 %
- Lula da Silva61 %
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy61 %
- Ursula von der Leyen59 %
- Friedrich Merz56 %
- Mark Rutte56 %
- Ahmed al-Sharaa32 %
- Kim Jong Un13 %
- Maria Corina Machado9 %
- Pope Leo XIV6 %
- Reza Pahlavi6 %
- Mojtaba Khamenei3 %
- Miguel Díaz-Canel3 %
- Nicolás Maduro2 %
- Masoud Pezeshkian2 %
- Yoon Suk Yeol1 %
Total volume
$2.4K
24h vol.
$631.35
1w vol.
$631.35
1m vol.
$631.35
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
5¢ / 7¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
12¢
Start date
Oct 31, 2026
End date
Dec 1, 2026
ends in 4 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 276 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 9.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (14)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 days ago | Sell | 8¢ | 100 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 14¢ | 284 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 10¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 10¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 15¢ | 1 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 21¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 16¢ | 5 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 24¢ | 182 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 16¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 16¢ | 172 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 10¢ | 1 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 160 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 16¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 16¢ | 51 |
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