Updated 3 days ago
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 15?
98 %
chance
Market brief
- At 98%, the market sees this question as practically decided.
- Up 2.3 pp in the last 24 hours, after dipping to 67% on Nov 8, 2026.
- Last 14 trades: 14 buys, 0 sells; the largest was $216 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 100% of Polymarket Crypto markets priced 95–100% one day before the end resolved YES (649 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 3 days (Nov 15, 2026).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Bitcoin above ___ on November 15?
11 outcomesUnderstand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$6.6K
24h vol.
$1.5K
Liquidity
$16.4K
End date
Nov 15, 2026
ends in 3 days
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Underlying assetPro+Spot price, the move this market still needs, and how often the asset has managed it before.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$6.6K
Bid / Ask
98¢ / 99¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
98¢
Start date
Nov 8, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (14)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 160 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 160 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 170 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 80 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 30 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 170 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 190 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 200 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 160 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 160 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 2 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 230 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 90¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 90¢ | 5 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
- Event:
- Bitcoin above ___ on November 15?
- Resolution source:
- https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
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