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Updated 2 wk. ago

Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?

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73 %

chance

▲ +0.0%24h▼ −7.0%1W
Yes 73¢No 28¢

Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?

10 outcomes

Total volume

$510K

24h vol.

$472.93

1w vol.

$9.5K

1m vol.

$83.7K

Liquidity

$55.7K

Bid / Ask

72¢ / 73¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

72¢

Start date

Dec 12, 2025

End date

Jan 1, 2028

ends in 1 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
76¢$51
75¢$59
74¢$1,055
73¢$5,466
72¢$5,500
71¢$8,116
70¢$1,150
69¢$484
68¢$2,110
67¢$5,000
Asks (sell)Size
77¢$298
78¢$1,497
79¢$675
80¢$10,600
82¢$25
84¢$44
85¢$5,005
88¢$6,035
89¢$50,000
90¢$5,000

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✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 69%Sells 31%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 wk. agoSell76¢40
2 wk. agoSell24¢40
2 wk. agoBuy77¢12
2 wk. agoSell77¢12
2 wk. agoBuy77¢201
2 wk. agoSell77¢201
2 wk. agoBuy77¢20
2 wk. agoSell77¢20
2 wk. agoBuy77¢40
2 wk. agoSell77¢40
2 wk. agoBuy77¢90
2 wk. agoSell77¢90
2 wk. agoBuy77¢2
2 wk. agoSell77¢2
2 wk. agoBuy77¢142
2 wk. agoSell77¢142
2 wk. agoSell23¢780
2 wk. agoBuy22¢55
2 wk. agoBuy22¢326
2 wk. agoBuy23¢120
2 wk. agoBuy23¢150
2 wk. agoBuy23¢129
2 wk. agoBuy23¢30
2 wk. agoSell23¢30
2 wk. agoSell77¢100
2 wk. agoBuy77¢45
2 wk. agoBuy77¢55
2 wk. agoBuy22¢584
2 wk. agoBuy78¢100
2 wk. agoBuy78¢484
2 wk. agoBuy22¢131
2 wk. agoBuy78¢131
2 wk. agoBuy22¢131
2 wk. agoBuy78¢131
2 wk. agoBuy22¢131
2 wk. agoBuy78¢131
2 wk. agoBuy22¢131
2 wk. agoBuy78¢131
2 wk. agoBuy22¢10
2 wk. agoBuy78¢10
2 wk. agoBuy22¢131
2 wk. agoBuy78¢83
2 wk. agoSell22¢48
2 wk. agoBuy22¢131
2 wk. agoSell22¢131
2 wk. agoBuy22¢131
2 wk. agoSell22¢48
2 wk. agoSell22¢83
2 wk. agoBuy22¢131
2 wk. agoSell22¢117

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