Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Oct 14, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

M15 Monastir: Nazim Makhlouf vs Tuncay Duran100¢▲ +92.6%2Vegas vs Nashville: Spread — Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals92¢▲ +92.0%3

Wuhan Tennis Open: Hanyu Guo vs Sorana Cirstea100¢▲ +87.5%4Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award?95¢▲ +86.1%5

Will Guillermo Rodriguez be eliminated in week 5 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?99¢▲ +84.1%6Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Market 59%AI 72%-13 pp gap

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Market 22%AI 16%+6 pp gap

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseMarket 10%AI 5%+5 pp gap

Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Market 44%AI 39%+5 pp gap

Biggest coin moves

The largest 24-hour price swings among the coins in our crypto hub.

Optimism OP$0.1563▲ +15.7%Injective INJ$8.29▲ +8.0%Curve DAO Token CRV$0.3397▼ −5.4%Render RENDER$2.05▼ −4.6%NEAR Protocol NEAR$5.09▼ −4.4%Celestia TIA$0.5772▼ −4.3%

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?10¢Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?14¢US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?81¢Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?17¢

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