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Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?
21 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 21.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 43% on Nov 2, 2026.
- Historically, 24% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (170 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 1 yr. (Jan 1, 2028).
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Total volume
$238.8K
24h vol.
$71.3K
1w vol.
$73.1K
1m vol.
$77.4K
Liquidity
$19.9K
Bid / Ask
20¢ / 22¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
24¢
Start date
Jan 4, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2028
ends in 1 yr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 170 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 23.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
Failed to load trades: Upstream request failed (410) for https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0xce500e0cdc77863e3ae46ea2f8fc7afea2e94e703761e4004065e23fe8629881&limit=50&takerOnly=true
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