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Updated 2 mo. ago
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?
12 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 8.6 pp over the past week (+5.1 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 3% on Sep 15, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 33 buys, 17 sells; the largest was $97 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 9% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (276 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 1 yr. (Dec 31, 2027).
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Total volume
$64K
24h vol.
$24
1w vol.
$256.585
1m vol.
$1.6K
Liquidity
$4.6K
Bid / Ask
4¢ / 19¢
Spread 15¢
Last trade
20¢
Start date
Jan 4, 2026
End date
Dec 31, 2027
ends in 1 yr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 276 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 9.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 27 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 27 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 118 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 21 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 25 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 15 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 22 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 13 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 13 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 2 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 2 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 2 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 2 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 22 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 22 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 22 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 58 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 39 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 14 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 25 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 15 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 15 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 11 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 11 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 13 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 13 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 90 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 31 |
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