Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?

Market brief

• Up 3.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after dipping to 3% on Sep 12, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 34 buys, 16 sells; the largest was $371 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 9% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (276 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 1 yr. (Jan 1, 2028).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 276 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 9.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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