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Updated 3 mo. ago
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2 %
chance
Iran leader end of 2026?
30 outcomes- Mojtaba Khamenei87 %
- No Head of State4 %
- Reza Pahlavi3 %
- Alireza Arafi2 %
- Hassan Rouhani1 %
- Abbas Araghchi0 %
- Maryam Rajavi0 %
- Ahmad Vahidi0 %
- Masoud Pezeshkian0 %
- Seyed Hossein Mousavian0 %
- Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf0 %
- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad0 %
- Hassan Khomeini0 %
- Sadegh Larijani0 %
- Muhammad Mirbaqiri0 %
- Hassan Shariatmadari0 %
- Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel0 %
- Reza Pirzadeh0 %
- Mohammad Khatami0 %
- Mustafa Hijri0 %
- Sadegh Mahsouli0 %
- Ali Asghar Hejazi0 %
- Saeed Jalili0 %
- Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani0 %
- Nasir Hosseini0 %
- Navid Shomali0 %
- Mostafa Pourmohammadi0 %
- Massoud Rajavi0 %
- Mohsen Araki0 %
- Ali Motahari0 %
Total volume
$2.3M
24h vol.
$214.5
1w vol.
$6K
1m vol.
$7.7K
Liquidity
$51.3K
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 2¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
2¢
Start date
Mar 1, 2026
End date
Dec 31, 2026
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 0¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 11,650 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 11,650 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 11,650 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 11,650 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 8 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 8 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 25 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 25 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 6 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 6 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 26 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 26 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 11,684 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 11,684 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 11,710 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 11,684 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 26 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 387 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 387 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 98¢ | 6 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 6 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 108 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 108 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 6 |
◆ Smart money
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Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.