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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
89 %
chance
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
36 outcomes- Marine Le Pen89 %
- Édouard Philippe42 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon39 %
- David Lisnard15 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann10 %
- Bruno Retailleau6 %
- Gabriel Attal6 %
- François Hollande6 %
- Jordan Bardella6 %
- Dominique de Villepin5 %
- Juan Branco5 %
- Manuel Bompard5 %
- Éric Zemmour5 %
- Sarah Knafo4 %
- Sébastien Lecornu4 %
- Gérald Darmanin4 %
- François Ruffin4 %
- Élisabeth Borne4 %
- Bernard Cazeneuve4 %
- François Asselineau4 %
- Fabien Roussel3 %
- François Bayrou3 %
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3 %
- Ségolène Royal3 %
- Yaël Braun-Pivet3 %
- Clémence Guetté3 %
- Mathilde Panot3 %
- Carole Delga3 %
- Laurent Wauquiez2 %
- Clémentine Autain2 %
- Marine Tondelier2 %
- Michel Barnier1 %
- Valérie Pécresse1 %
- Jean Castex1 %
- Xavier Bertrand1 %
- Olivier Faure1 %
Total volume
$18.1K
24h vol.
$134.776
1w vol.
$838.385
1m vol.
$6K
Liquidity
$21.9K
Bid / Ask
88¢ / 90¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
89¢
Start date
Jun 1, 2026
End date
Apr 19, 2027
ends in 6 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before resolution, 88.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 90.1%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 114 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 99 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 771 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 394 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 354 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 13 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 13 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 43 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 23 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 36 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 140 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 120 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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Smart money is a Pro+ feature
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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