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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

Politics
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39 %

chance

▼ −1.5%1h▲ +1.0%24h▼ −1.5%1W
Yes 39¢No 62¢

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

36 outcomes

Total volume

$23.4K

24h vol.

$197.488

1w vol.

$5K

1m vol.

$12.7K

Liquidity

$31.3K

Bid / Ask

36¢ / 41¢

Spread 5¢

Last trade

39¢

Start date

Jun 1, 2026

End date

Apr 19, 2027

ends in 6 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 8,884 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 3¢
Bids (buy)Size
37¢$150
36¢$300
35¢$272
31¢$100
28¢$32
26¢$44
25¢$5
24¢$53
23¢$116
22¢$74
Asks (sell)Size
40¢$88
41¢$231
48¢$50
49¢$68
50¢$800
53¢$233
63¢$625
64¢$300
65¢$600
67¢$500

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 73%Sells 27%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoBuy60¢8
1 mo. agoBuy40¢8
1 mo. agoBuy58¢20
1 mo. agoSell58¢20
1 mo. agoBuy57¢68
1 mo. agoBuy43¢50
1 mo. agoBuy44¢18
1 mo. agoBuy47¢331
1 mo. agoBuy48¢51
1 mo. agoBuy51¢119
1 mo. agoBuy54¢95
1 mo. agoBuy58¢11
1 mo. agoSell40¢40
1 mo. agoSell39¢15
1 mo. agoBuy39¢5
1 mo. agoSell39¢5
1 mo. agoSell59¢1
1 mo. agoBuy59¢1
1 mo. agoBuy62¢86
1 mo. agoBuy38¢40
1 mo. agoSell62¢46
1 mo. agoBuy41¢12
1 mo. agoBuy59¢12
1 mo. agoSell52¢58
1 mo. agoBuy51¢31
1 mo. agoSell48¢8
1 mo. agoBuy53¢13
1 mo. agoSell43¢6
1 mo. agoSell39¢4
1 mo. agoBuy39¢4
1 mo. agoSell57¢1
1 mo. agoSell43¢1
1 mo. agoSell41¢8
1 mo. agoSell59¢8
1 mo. agoBuy62¢103
1 mo. agoSell62¢103
1 mo. agoSell39¢8
1 mo. agoBuy39¢8
1 mo. agoSell55¢1
1 mo. agoBuy55¢1
1 mo. agoBuy60¢165
1 mo. agoSell62¢59
1 mo. agoBuy39¢5
1 mo. agoBuy40¢30
1 mo. agoBuy40¢11
1 mo. agoSell60¢21
1 mo. agoBuy41¢20
1 mo. agoBuy41¢20
1 mo. agoSell50¢112
1 mo. agoBuy47¢61

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