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Updated 4 wk. ago
Will Jean Castex advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
1 %
chance
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
36 outcomes- Marine Le Pen89 %
- Édouard Philippe42 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon39 %
- David Lisnard15 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann10 %
- Bruno Retailleau6 %
- Gabriel Attal6 %
- François Hollande6 %
- Jordan Bardella6 %
- Dominique de Villepin5 %
- Juan Branco5 %
- Manuel Bompard5 %
- Éric Zemmour5 %
- Sarah Knafo4 %
- Sébastien Lecornu4 %
- Gérald Darmanin4 %
- François Ruffin4 %
- Élisabeth Borne4 %
- Bernard Cazeneuve4 %
- François Asselineau4 %
- Fabien Roussel3 %
- François Bayrou3 %
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3 %
- Ségolène Royal3 %
- Yaël Braun-Pivet3 %
- Clémence Guetté3 %
- Mathilde Panot3 %
- Carole Delga3 %
- Laurent Wauquiez2 %
- Clémentine Autain2 %
- Marine Tondelier2 %
- Michel Barnier1 %
- Valérie Pécresse1 %
- Jean Castex1 %
- Xavier Bertrand1 %
- Olivier Faure1 %
Total volume
$3.1K
24h vol.
$395.5
1w vol.
$1.8K
1m vol.
$1.8K
Liquidity
$11.4K
Bid / Ask
0¢ / 2¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
0¢
Start date
Jun 1, 2026
End date
Apr 19, 2027
ends in 6 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (49)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 99¢ | 51 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 51 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 68 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 25 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 36 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 100 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 36 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 64 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 32 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 32 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 4 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 25 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 11 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 40 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 96¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 46 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 46 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 22 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 12 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 94 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 68 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 26 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 32 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 18 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 515 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 21 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 73 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 145 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 16 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 100 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 100 |
| 5 mo. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 2 |
| 5 mo. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 2 |
| 5 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 50 |
| 5 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 50 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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Smart money is a Pro+ feature
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.