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Updated 3 mo. ago
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
42 %
chance
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
36 outcomes- Marine Le Pen89 %
- Édouard Philippe42 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon39 %
- David Lisnard15 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann10 %
- Bruno Retailleau6 %
- Gabriel Attal6 %
- François Hollande6 %
- Jordan Bardella6 %
- Dominique de Villepin5 %
- Juan Branco5 %
- Manuel Bompard5 %
- Éric Zemmour5 %
- Sarah Knafo4 %
- Sébastien Lecornu4 %
- Gérald Darmanin4 %
- François Ruffin4 %
- Élisabeth Borne4 %
- Bernard Cazeneuve4 %
- François Asselineau4 %
- Fabien Roussel3 %
- François Bayrou3 %
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3 %
- Ségolène Royal3 %
- Yaël Braun-Pivet3 %
- Clémence Guetté3 %
- Mathilde Panot3 %
- Carole Delga3 %
- Laurent Wauquiez2 %
- Clémentine Autain2 %
- Marine Tondelier2 %
- Michel Barnier1 %
- Valérie Pécresse1 %
- Jean Castex1 %
- Xavier Bertrand1 %
- Olivier Faure1 %
Total volume
$7.6K
24h vol.
$1.1K
1w vol.
$1.8K
1m vol.
$5K
Liquidity
$28.9K
Bid / Ask
41¢ / 43¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
43¢
Start date
Jun 1, 2026
End date
Apr 19, 2027
ends in 6 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 8,884 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 3 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 59¢ | 3 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 34 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 59¢ | 34 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 200 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 59¢ | 148 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 59¢ | 23 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 41¢ | 15 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 41¢ | 9 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 59¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 57¢ | 40 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 23 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 17 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 43¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 57¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 59¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 43¢ | 12 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 12 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 62¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 62¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 57¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 59¢ | 75 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 40 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 34¢ | 143 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 66¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 66¢ | 75 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 66¢ | 6 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 33¢ | 12 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 67¢ | 11 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 33¢ | 11 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 35¢ | 2 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 35¢ | 2 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 37¢ | 18 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 37¢ | 18 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 33¢ | 2 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 33¢ | 2 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 32¢ | 0 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 68¢ | 0 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 9 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 57¢ | 9 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 2 |
◆ Smart money
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