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Updated 4 days ago
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
100 %
chance
How surprising was this result?
Seven days before the end, the market priced YES at 93%.
Among 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced in the same range, a result like this one happened 88% of the time — the expected outcome.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
9 outcomesTotal volume
$2.1M
24h vol.
$187.7K
1w vol.
$1.6M
1m vol.
$2.1M
Liquidity
$72K
Bid / Ask
100¢ / 100¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
100¢
Start date
Sep 29, 2026
End date
Oct 16, 2026
trading closed
Orderbook
No orders
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✦ AI assessment
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Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 317 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 317 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 2,000 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 2,000 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 56 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 56 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 28 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 28 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 58 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 58 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 26 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 26 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 71 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 71 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 29 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 9 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 1,283 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 1,244 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 39 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 1 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 1 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 100 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 86 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 14 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 1,540 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 1,520 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 300 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 300 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 100 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 100 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 5,315 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 5,315 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 40 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 40 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 40 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 40 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 5,000 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 5,000 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 3,000 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 2,681 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 319 |
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