← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 8 min. ago
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Politics
0 %
chance
▼ −0.3%1h▼ −34.0%24h▼ −26.0%1W
Yes 0¢No 100¢
Market brief
- Down 25.9 pp over the past week (−34.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 41% on Oct 24, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 25 buys, 25 sells; the largest was $5.06K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Scheduled to end in 3 hr. (Oct 26, 2026).
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
50%
Saved in this browser only. No account needed.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
uses 1 credit
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
8 outcomesTotal volume
$1.5M
24h vol.
$520.8K
1w vol.
$1.2M
1m vol.
$1.5M
Liquidity
$68.5K
Last trade
0¢
Start date
Oct 5, 2026
End date
Oct 26, 2026
ends in 3 hr.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Bids (buy)Size
No orders
Asks (sell)Size
0¢$27,145
3¢$1,000
3¢$347
4¢$500
4¢$900
5¢$2,034
6¢$2,000
7¢$1,000
7¢$6,429
9¢$2,136
Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
Buys 74%Sells 26%
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 min. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 333 |
| 35 min. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 7,000 |
| 39 min. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 166 |
| 42 min. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 2,477 |
| 45 min. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 77 |
| 48 min. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 32 |
| 51 min. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 38 |
| 52 min. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 1,500 |
| 53 min. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 1,048 |
| 54 min. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 55 |
| 54 min. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 60 |
| 54 min. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 6 |
| 54 min. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 180 |
| 55 min. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 30 |
| 55 min. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 167 |
| 55 min. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 24 |
| 55 min. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 220 |
| 55 min. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 60 |
| 55 min. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 75 |
| 55 min. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 34 |
| 56 min. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 183 |
| 58 min. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 477 |
| 59 min. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 89 |
| 59 min. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 3 |
| 59 min. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 11 |
| 59 min. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 26 |
| 59 min. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 19 |
| 59 min. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 167 |
| 59 min. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 2,600 |
| 59 min. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 167 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 5,094 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 1,336 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 10 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 10 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 44 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 8 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1,475 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 1,000 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 825 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 1,100 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 100 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 14 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 177 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 126 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 20 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 20 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 60 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 670 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 100 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 50 |
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0 %▼ −82.3%
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?95 %▲ +0.0%
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?9 %▲ +0.0%
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?82 %▼ −1.0%
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?26 %▼ −3.0%
- Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?31 %▲ +2.0%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.