← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 22 min. ago

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Politics
0 %
chance
▼ −12.4%1h▼ −0.5%24h▼ −0.9%1W
Yes 0¢No 100¢
Market brief
- Last 50 trades: 16 buys, 34 sells; the largest was $1.4K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Scheduled to end in 3 hr. (Oct 26, 2026).
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
50%
Saved in this browser only. No account needed.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
uses 1 credit
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
8 outcomesTotal volume
$1.2M
24h vol.
$677.3K
1w vol.
$1.1M
1m vol.
$1.2M
Liquidity
$74.2K
Bid / Ask
0¢ / 0¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
0¢
Start date
Oct 5, 2026
End date
Oct 26, 2026
ends in 3 hr.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 0¢Bids (buy)Size
0¢$79
Asks (sell)Size
0¢$1,269
0¢$1,000
1¢$13
1¢$100
1¢$27
1¢$3,387
1¢$8,754
2¢$1,246
2¢$1,000
2¢$42
Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
Buys 50%Sells 50%
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 5,000 |
| 31 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 161 |
| 32 min. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 200 |
| 33 min. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 31 |
| 33 min. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 128 |
| 33 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 126 |
| 33 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 3 |
| 33 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 982 |
| 33 min. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 1,449 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 26 |
| 34 min. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 200 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 18 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 5,928 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 760 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 1 |
| 34 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 1 |
| 35 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 1,748 |
| 35 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 508 |
| 35 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 1,760 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 2,498 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 171 |
| 36 min. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 2 |
| 36 min. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 36 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 29 |
| 37 min. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 52 |
| 37 min. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 1,134 |
| 37 min. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 143 |
| 37 min. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 10 |
| 39 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 2 |
| 39 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 2 |
| 39 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 331 |
| 39 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 10 |
| 39 min. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 2,000 |
| 40 min. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 11 |
| 40 min. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 133 |
| 40 min. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 45 |
| 40 min. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 675 |
| 40 min. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 100 |
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0 %▼ −82.3%
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?95 %▲ +0.0%
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?9 %▲ +0.0%
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?82 %▼ −1.0%
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?26 %▼ −3.0%
- Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?31 %▲ +2.0%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.