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Updated 2 days ago

Will Kaka attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
33 %
chance
Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
14 outcomesTotal volume
$4.2K
24h vol.
$105.902
1w vol.
$4.2K
1m vol.
$4.2K
Liquidity
$707.267
Bid / Ask
32¢ / 33¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
34¢
Start date
Oct 16, 2026
End date
Dec 1, 2026
ends in 1 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 2,886 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 31.4% resolved YES. That is 5.3 points more often than their average price of 26.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 days ago | Buy | 32¢ | 45 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 32¢ | 10 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 32¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 68¢ | 15 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 68¢ | 85 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 68¢ | 85 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 28¢ | 177 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 72¢ | 85 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 72¢ | 22 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 27¢ | 50 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 27¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 26¢ | 15 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 26¢ | 15 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 28¢ | 35 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 28¢ | 15 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 28¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 4 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 4 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 60¢ | 4 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 4 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 39¢ | 24 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 37¢ | 4 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 43¢ | 5 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 43¢ | 5 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 39¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 39¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 43¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 43¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 43¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 43¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 43¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 43¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 43¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 43¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 45¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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