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Updated 2 days ago

Will Michael Owen attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
73 %
chance
Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
14 outcomesTotal volume
$1.2K
24h vol.
$241.96
1w vol.
$1.2K
1m vol.
$1.2K
Liquidity
$637.698
Bid / Ask
72¢ / 74¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
73¢
Start date
Oct 16, 2026
End date
Dec 1, 2026
ends in 1 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 1,561 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 67.1% resolved YES. That is 5.6 points less often than their average price of 72.7% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (24)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 days ago | Buy | 43¢ | 222 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 44¢ | 22 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 57¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 43¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 57¢ | 100 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 57¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 20 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 42¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 41¢ | 21 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 41¢ | 21 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 30¢ | 289 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 67¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 69¢ | 21 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 70¢ | 23 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 70¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 70¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 70¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 70¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 71¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 71¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 71¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 71¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 71¢ | 45 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 71¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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